***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.4 10.6 0.6 61.0 58.0 6.9 7.6 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.1 10.2 0.5 57.5 57.2 6.8 7.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.9 10.7 0.6 61.4 59.0 9.0 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.4 7.9 0.6 58.2 57.8 4.1 5.3 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.0 8.1 0.6 57.8 58.0 5.6 6.4 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.7 6.6 0.8 59.5 59.5 5.2 6.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.4 10.3 0.6 59.2 58.0 6.8 7.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 2.3 2.3 6.3 0.5 56.5 57.2 1.2 1.9 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.8 8.5 0.6 58.5 58.7 7.1 7.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.8 7.6 7.1 0.5 55.9 57.3 6.8 7.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.0 7.5 0.5 55.3 57.9 6.2 6.9 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.2 6.9 0.5 57.9 58.6 5.4 5.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.9 6.6 0.5 56.3 57.5 5.8 6.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 8.3 8.4 8.5 0.5 58.5 57.6 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.4 9.1 0.9 62.1 61.0 7.3 8.0 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.9 7.1 0.5 56.7 58.2 7.3 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.5 10.0 0.5 59.0 56.7 7.0 7.6 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.8 6.3 0.5 55.7 57.2 5.9 6.6 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.2 10.2 0.5 58.0 57.3 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 3.1 3.1 4.7 0.4 55.6 55.6 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.2 9.8 0.6 60.0 58.7 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.7 9.8 0.4 57.9 55.9 5.8 6.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.5 10.2 0.6 60.2 58.1 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.8 8.2 0.6 59.1 58.6 6.3 7.4 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.9 9.3 0.6 58.1 57.5 6.5 7.3 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.8 6.3 0.3 55.6 55.9 6.3 6.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.6 10.0 0.6 59.9 57.8 6.5 6.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.9 8.1 0.7 59.7 59.4 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.0 5.9 0.5 56.2 56.8 4.6 5.8 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.0 7.9 10.4 0.6 58.5 57.8 6.9 7.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------