***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 8.2 9.9 11.6 0.0 52.2 50.2 7.7 9.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.4 11.2 -0.1 48.6 48.4 8.7 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 10.4 11.7 11.6 0.0 50.9 49.4 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.9 9.0 0.2 53.3 51.4 6.1 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.9 9.1 0.1 47.9 50.4 7.7 9.2 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.3 8.6 7.7 0.4 54.8 55.0 6.6 8.4 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.4 11.3 -0.1 49.7 48.7 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.9 7.6 0.2 50.6 53.4 2.6 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 8.5 9.9 9.4 0.0 44.7 49.6 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.7 8.7 8.1 0.0 46.2 50.6 8.0 9.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.3 9.3 8.7 0.2 50.8 52.2 7.6 9.3 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.2 8.2 8.2 0.4 53.0 54.5 6.6 8.1 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.6 8.7 7.7 0.2 50.4 52.0 7.1 8.6 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.6 9.2 -0.1 47.8 47.8 8.9 9.8 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 8.4 10.4 10.1 0.3 54.5 53.4 8.8 10.3 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.0 10.3 8.3 0.3 53.1 52.8 8.1 9.8 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 8.5 9.6 10.9 -0.2 48.6 47.6 8.6 9.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.5 8.3 7.2 -0.1 44.5 49.8 7.0 8.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.3 11.2 -0.1 48.8 48.3 8.7 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.5 5.7 0.0 45.0 51.0 2.7 5.0 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.6 9.4 10.7 0.0 47.4 49.7 8.2 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.4 8.5 10.7 -0.2 47.6 46.6 7.7 8.5 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.9 9.1 11.1 0.0 49.8 48.3 8.2 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 7.3 8.8 9.0 -0.1 47.4 48.9 8.3 8.9 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 7.9 10.1 10.3 0.1 51.5 50.3 9.1 10.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.1 9.2 7.5 0.2 49.7 51.9 7.1 9.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 8.8 10.4 11.0 0.0 50.9 50.1 9.0 10.4 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.3 9.0 9.2 0.3 54.6 53.3 7.5 8.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 7.0 6.8 -0.1 44.9 50.0 6.4 7.4 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.5 9.6 11.4 0.0 50.0 48.7 8.9 9.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------