***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9.9 9.9 12.3 -1.4 31.8 31.4 9.9 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 9.3 9.7 11.3 -2.0 26.1 25.2 10.1 10.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.8 12.1 12.4 -1.3 31.3 30.8 12.2 12.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.4 7.8 10.6 -0.5 41.9 41.3 7.4 8.4 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.3 11.2 -0.8 36.2 36.4 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.3 9.5 0.1 48.0 48.6 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 9.6 9.4 11.7 -1.7 26.9 27.6 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.6 8.7 -0.7 33.5 36.1 4.5 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.4 10.7 11.4 -0.6 38.2 39.3 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.6 9.7 -0.7 35.7 37.6 10.6 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.3 11.2 -0.3 44.7 44.5 9.6 10.6 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.8 9.9 -0.6 36.3 38.6 8.6 9.3 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.8 10.4 -0.3 42.7 43.1 8.9 10.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.7 10.6 -1.0 33.4 33.5 10.7 11.3 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 11.7 12.3 13.6 0.9 66.7 63.9 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.0 10.8 -0.3 43.2 43.7 10.6 11.1 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 9.6 9.5 10.9 -2.1 24.2 23.8 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.7 9.0 -0.8 34.0 35.8 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 9.5 9.5 11.5 -1.8 27.1 26.5 9.9 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.6 7.2 -1.0 31.2 32.7 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.2 12.2 -0.9 34.8 35.9 10.2 10.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 8.4 9.0 11.1 -2.0 24.5 24.4 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 9.2 9.6 11.8 -1.4 29.5 29.1 9.8 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.0 10.9 -0.8 34.0 35.7 10.0 10.4 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 10.2 10.6 11.8 -1.3 29.9 31.9 10.6 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.7 9.5 -0.5 37.0 39.7 9.5 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 9.8 9.8 12.0 -1.4 30.3 31.2 10.2 11.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.0 11.7 0.3 55.1 53.9 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.7 8.1 8.2 -0.9 32.6 34.0 8.1 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 9.7 9.6 11.9 -1.7 28.3 27.7 10.3 11.8 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------