***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 30.0 32.2 35.4 69.0 34.5 34.0 31.6 42.9 53.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 28.2 32.1 32.6 68.9 35.8 34.2 30.7 43.3 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 34.6 38.5 36.1 72.3 38.4 35.2 35.5 46.9 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 44.8 65.3 41.8 73.4 40.9 37.7 61.2 69.5 82.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 28.5 38.7 37.6 72.3 41.7 37.3 33.4 50.1 64.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 30.1 32.4 37.3 64.8 33.5 32.8 31.9 47.3 61.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 25.9 28.3 31.8 66.6 34.2 33.8 28.3 39.8 53.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 50.8 63.0 42.4 73.6 40.5 37.6 54.0 70.0 80.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 29.6 41.5 37.9 72.6 42.0 37.4 35.0 44.9 64.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 37.6 42.6 41.5 71.8 39.2 36.8 39.6 49.8 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 28.2 38.5 37.1 71.8 39.4 36.9 29.8 43.5 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.8 37.8 37.5 73.8 41.2 37.9 31.9 39.3 66.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 35.6 38.6 37.6 70.0 38.4 36.1 36.8 48.4 62.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 41.1 57.2 44.8 72.4 34.9 34.9 56.2 65.8 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 28.0 44.6 42.4 77.9 46.4 39.3 31.0 46.6 63.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 27.8 35.8 36.6 70.7 39.3 36.4 31.7 39.8 49.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 22.1 22.9 31.9 66.7 34.0 32.9 22.8 38.8 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 37.5 48.9 45.8 73.7 37.8 36.8 44.0 53.4 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 25.1 40.0 34.2 71.3 37.0 34.8 36.7 43.8 54.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 45.3 48.1 54.6 78.0 40.3 39.4 45.1 56.3 71.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 34.0 40.8 36.6 71.6 39.7 36.0 37.4 48.0 56.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 27.4 33.9 34.4 69.1 35.4 33.6 32.7 41.0 50.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 27.2 40.2 36.7 73.0 36.3 35.0 38.4 42.6 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 34.9 49.8 42.7 74.0 38.6 36.4 44.0 59.3 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 34.1 41.1 38.8 68.8 36.8 34.7 38.5 54.6 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 30.9 39.0 38.9 71.7 40.3 36.5 33.0 46.6 57.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 33.0 37.1 36.6 67.4 34.4 33.5 35.8 47.7 60.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 30.3 42.1 40.1 75.0 43.6 38.3 39.1 46.5 54.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 59.9 66.3 50.0 77.1 40.2 38.4 61.9 79.8 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 24.1 29.5 33.6 69.6 35.3 34.8 29.3 37.8 45.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------