***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.2 4.9 12.8 104.5 63.1 49.4 0.4 2.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.9 9.7 12.0 105.4 64.4 49.7 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 13.2 13.5 113.1 66.2 50.8 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.0 18.5 15.6 111.4 68.2 51.8 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.8 16.6 14.1 104.9 64.8 51.3 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.0 17.7 13.4 94.5 61.4 50.5 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.2 12.3 11.8 103.1 64.0 49.9 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.6 22.1 14.6 101.3 64.4 52.2 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.7 17.8 14.1 104.7 66.3 51.1 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.0 18.0 14.7 101.5 64.1 51.4 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.6 13.4 103.5 64.9 51.2 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.1 15.0 13.3 104.0 64.3 51.5 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.1 18.0 14.3 107.2 63.5 51.9 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 22.0 16.6 116.7 66.8 53.3 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.1 17.1 16.9 121.5 73.5 50.8 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 12.0 13.6 106.1 65.3 51.4 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.5 5.7 12.6 108.2 64.0 50.7 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 18.9 16.2 106.5 63.5 53.1 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 0.9 10.6 12.5 108.6 65.7 50.0 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.0 13.4 18.6 102.1 63.0 53.5 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.0 19.9 13.6 108.2 67.1 51.3 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.2 10.4 13.2 108.1 64.4 50.4 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.1 10.5 13.3 112.2 65.6 50.1 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.9 20.4 15.9 117.6 67.5 53.9 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.5 16.1 14.2 104.1 64.7 50.4 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.5 21.1 14.7 111.1 65.4 51.8 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.0 10.4 13.1 102.0 62.8 49.2 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.0 17.1 14.8 110.6 70.4 51.3 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 25.4 17.3 109.9 65.1 54.4 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.4 10.6 12.2 105.3 64.2 49.1 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------