***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.1 6.2 11.2 105.4 64.7 49.3 1.0 2.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.2 10.1 9.3 90.7 61.4 47.1 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.1 9.5 11.4 106.3 63.6 49.3 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.4 15.9 13.0 112.5 69.0 52.3 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.5 17.1 11.7 110.4 67.4 51.1 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.4 9.9 12.4 96.2 64.6 47.2 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.4 8.1 9.0 87.8 61.6 47.4 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.4 22.8 13.4 108.6 69.2 51.5 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.3 15.4 12.1 110.9 67.5 50.1 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.1 17.1 13.2 108.7 67.0 51.2 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.8 15.3 11.5 105.4 67.4 50.3 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.8 16.1 11.5 103.8 68.1 49.7 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.5 15.4 11.4 95.8 64.2 48.1 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.1 13.3 14.3 101.3 62.5 48.1 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 14.6 14.0 121.0 69.5 51.7 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.2 15.2 11.3 99.8 65.0 49.1 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.5 10.6 8.0 75.4 58.9 44.7 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 15.6 14.9 114.3 67.0 51.8 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.4 8.3 10.1 95.8 62.1 47.1 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 20.8 18.2 116.5 69.2 53.1 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.7 11.7 112.9 67.4 50.2 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.0 8.5 9.2 81.5 58.6 44.6 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.8 11.2 11.4 100.9 63.3 48.1 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 13.0 13.9 111.1 64.4 49.6 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.9 12.1 108.7 65.3 50.1 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.4 11.3 11.4 95.3 62.9 48.5 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.3 6.6 11.6 106.3 64.6 49.4 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.2 17.6 13.3 116.7 69.3 51.7 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.8 25.7 16.0 116.2 66.5 52.0 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.0 10.4 10.3 99.2 63.9 48.4 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------