***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.0 9.8 9.8 75.8 56.2 36.8 2.3 6.0 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.8 9.6 9.4 84.3 59.1 37.2 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.3 8.8 9.7 77.4 56.2 37.4 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.1 15.4 11.0 79.2 57.8 38.1 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.8 11.5 10.3 79.4 55.5 36.5 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.4 9.4 70.3 51.2 37.9 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.3 8.7 9.2 81.7 60.2 38.0 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.5 15.7 11.9 92.3 58.3 42.9 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.3 13.0 10.3 84.0 55.9 37.4 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.4 17.1 11.4 87.9 56.5 40.7 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.2 11.1 10.2 76.0 51.2 36.5 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.0 7.0 10.7 86.7 56.9 40.7 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.1 10.1 78.5 55.2 39.9 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.1 11.4 75.9 51.6 37.3 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.5 8.4 9.7 71.2 57.2 35.8 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.5 9.7 75.0 53.3 38.2 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.1 8.7 9.5 84.9 61.0 39.3 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.4 13.0 12.1 86.1 55.1 41.1 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.2 7.4 9.6 84.4 58.0 37.6 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 13.9 14.9 94.2 57.7 44.4 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.1 15.2 10.1 80.6 56.5 37.0 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.0 10.2 10.1 85.4 60.5 40.0 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.1 9.9 9.8 80.4 53.6 37.5 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.7 10.7 76.8 52.3 38.0 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.9 10.8 11.0 74.0 55.5 35.3 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.9 10.4 10.8 80.1 57.4 38.1 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.8 14.0 10.2 72.6 54.9 35.1 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.3 10.9 10.0 77.6 57.1 37.3 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 4.2 16.8 13.6 89.5 55.6 43.2 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.1 6.6 9.3 81.0 57.7 37.0 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------