***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 95 5 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.6 10.2 13.6 9.8 1.0 11.2 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.9 13.0 15.0 10.5 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.5 10.3 14.4 9.7 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 0.4 0.0 2.1 12.0 13.9 9.3 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.5 10.0 12.1 8.4 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 2.0 12.0 14.6 9.0 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.8 12.2 14.7 9.3 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.0 2.5 13.8 11.4 9.4 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.4 8.9 11.7 8.4 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.0 2.2 11.6 11.3 9.1 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 0.1 0.0 2.0 14.2 14.7 9.8 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 0.3 0.0 2.0 13.6 13.3 9.2 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.8 11.8 14.3 7.8 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.0 2.5 13.5 12.9 11.0 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.9 12.2 18.0 12.3 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.9 13.4 15.5 8.7 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 0.6 0.1 1.8 12.4 15.4 10.4 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 0.6 0.0 2.6 13.1 10.9 9.5 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 0.7 0.2 2.0 13.8 15.3 11.1 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.0 2.9 14.7 10.8 9.9 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.2 7.6 11.8 8.1 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.8 12.7 15.1 11.3 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.1 2.2 14.9 15.7 11.3 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.0 2.1 12.0 12.2 10.1 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.5 8.9 12.4 9.2 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 0.3 0.0 2.0 12.9 16.6 8.7 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.7 10.1 13.5 9.7 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.9 12.2 15.9 10.2 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 1.1 0.0 3.0 15.2 11.4 10.2 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.7 11.7 14.3 9.9 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------