***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 22.4 22.7 22.7 1.7 80.1 72.7 20.8 21.5 22.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 23.0 23.5 23.0 2.0 81.4 74.7 21.1 22.1 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 23.0 23.5 23.0 1.8 79.9 73.0 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 16.0 16.2 19.9 1.3 74.2 69.1 14.5 14.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 23.2 23.3 20.5 0.9 65.6 63.0 21.4 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 22.5 22.4 18.6 0.8 64.8 62.1 20.4 21.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 22.4 22.8 22.8 1.9 80.1 74.1 20.9 21.5 22.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.6 18.9 0.9 65.6 62.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 23.0 23.0 21.0 0.8 64.3 62.7 21.3 22.1 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 22.8 22.6 19.7 0.9 64.3 62.7 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 23.1 23.3 20.5 0.8 64.5 62.8 21.4 22.0 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 22.7 22.7 19.8 0.9 65.8 63.5 20.5 21.7 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.5 19.9 0.8 63.0 61.2 21.2 22.6 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 23.6 24.1 21.4 1.5 76.4 69.5 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 22.7 22.9 21.4 1.6 79.6 73.0 20.9 22.1 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 24.0 24.0 20.2 0.9 65.3 63.5 22.0 23.2 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 22.2 22.5 22.5 1.8 79.5 73.4 20.6 21.3 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 22.1 22.2 19.4 1.1 67.9 65.2 20.3 21.1 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 22.6 23.2 23.1 2.0 82.5 75.1 20.8 21.7 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 18.7 18.7 17.2 0.9 68.7 63.6 16.8 18.0 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 23.0 23.1 21.8 1.0 67.0 65.0 21.2 22.0 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 23.0 23.4 22.3 1.7 77.4 71.9 21.0 22.0 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 22.8 23.4 23.3 2.1 84.8 76.1 21.1 21.9 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 23.2 23.3 21.2 1.4 73.1 68.7 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 22.2 22.2 20.8 1.1 69.8 66.2 21.0 21.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 23.2 23.5 19.7 1.3 74.2 68.1 20.9 22.8 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 22.4 22.5 21.8 1.5 76.1 70.2 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 23.1 23.5 20.4 1.3 73.5 68.8 20.8 22.0 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 17.7 18.0 18.6 1.0 67.3 63.9 15.9 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 22.6 23.0 23.0 2.0 81.8 74.7 20.9 21.6 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------