***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 17.6 20.1 19.4 0.5 56.3 55.7 18.6 19.4 20.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 17.9 20.0 19.4 0.6 58.7 56.1 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.5 20.5 19.7 0.6 58.0 56.0 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.4 16.9 0.3 54.3 53.9 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.3 19.8 17.5 0.0 52.0 51.6 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 17.5 19.5 16.1 0.2 52.2 52.9 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 17.3 19.4 19.4 0.6 59.1 56.2 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 10.4 16.3 0.1 50.8 51.8 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 20.3 19.8 17.9 0.0 51.6 51.6 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 18.1 19.8 17.0 0.1 50.5 51.6 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 18.4 19.9 17.5 0.1 51.6 51.8 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 18.4 19.9 17.3 0.2 51.3 52.5 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.3 16.9 0.1 49.5 51.9 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 18.2 20.2 18.0 0.2 52.4 52.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 17.7 19.5 17.7 0.5 56.8 56.0 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 19.4 20.7 17.3 0.2 52.0 52.6 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 17.2 18.9 19.1 0.5 58.6 55.4 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 19.0 16.8 0.1 51.3 51.9 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 17.7 19.9 19.6 0.6 59.2 56.2 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.1 14.5 0.0 48.7 50.7 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 20.3 19.9 18.7 0.1 53.2 52.6 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 17.9 19.9 19.0 0.4 58.4 54.8 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 20.6 20.3 19.7 0.6 58.8 56.3 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 20.5 20.1 18.1 0.2 54.0 53.1 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 17.6 19.2 17.5 0.2 52.6 52.9 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 18.5 19.9 17.1 0.5 53.6 55.3 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 17.8 19.6 18.6 0.4 55.1 54.7 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 19.7 19.3 17.3 0.4 55.3 54.6 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.0 15.9 0.0 48.7 50.8 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.5 19.6 19.5 0.7 58.9 56.5 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------