***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 19.9 21.4 20.8 0.1 49.8 50.8 20.2 21.4 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.3 21.7 21.1 0.5 55.2 53.5 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.4 21.2 0.2 51.2 51.4 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.1 14.8 18.4 -0.1 49.2 49.5 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 20.1 21.7 18.9 -0.5 44.7 46.3 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.1 20.5 17.2 -0.3 44.1 48.1 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.6 21.0 0.5 55.0 53.5 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.4 11.1 17.7 -0.2 43.9 47.7 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.7 19.3 -0.5 42.9 46.1 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.1 18.4 -0.3 43.1 47.1 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 20.6 22.0 18.8 -0.4 43.2 46.6 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.5 20.9 18.6 -0.2 45.1 47.9 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.5 21.7 18.1 -0.3 44.2 47.5 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.6 22.2 19.6 0.0 46.9 49.7 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 18.9 21.0 19.2 0.1 54.9 51.9 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 21.0 22.5 18.6 -0.3 44.1 47.5 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 19.9 21.5 20.7 0.4 54.1 53.0 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.9 18.2 -0.1 45.3 48.4 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.5 21.2 0.5 55.8 53.5 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.7 16.0 -0.1 47.0 48.6 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 20.2 21.3 20.0 -0.4 44.1 46.8 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 20.6 22.2 20.7 0.4 54.4 52.7 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.5 22.2 21.3 0.5 55.8 53.6 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.7 19.6 0.0 46.5 49.6 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.5 20.9 18.8 -0.3 46.4 47.4 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.9 18.6 0.4 55.6 53.0 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.5 19.9 0.0 48.1 49.5 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.4 21.7 18.7 -0.1 50.3 50.0 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.8 17.4 -0.2 44.7 47.9 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.2 21.6 21.1 0.5 54.7 53.4 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------