***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 23.3 23.8 23.1 1.3 69.9 62.7 20.9 21.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 24.0 23.9 23.2 1.4 71.2 63.1 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 24.3 23.9 23.3 1.3 68.8 62.6 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 17.1 16.3 20.2 1.0 63.4 60.4 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.2 23.4 20.8 0.5 55.9 56.2 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.1 18.7 0.3 54.5 54.1 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 23.7 23.6 23.1 1.4 69.7 62.8 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.5 19.0 0.5 56.6 55.9 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.2 21.3 0.4 54.9 55.9 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.6 19.9 0.5 55.8 55.9 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.0 23.1 20.8 0.4 54.0 55.9 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.7 20.0 0.5 57.1 56.6 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 21.2 23.2 20.2 0.3 53.7 55.3 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.6 21.5 0.8 61.8 59.4 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 24.5 23.5 22.1 1.4 69.9 63.0 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.7 24.0 20.5 0.5 55.8 56.1 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 23.4 23.3 22.6 1.2 68.5 61.9 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.7 22.0 19.4 0.6 58.0 57.2 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 23.6 24.2 23.4 1.5 71.7 63.6 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.1 18.3 17.2 0.5 56.7 56.4 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 24.2 23.5 22.2 0.6 57.0 57.2 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 24.1 24.2 22.5 1.1 65.7 61.0 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 23.8 24.3 23.5 1.6 72.8 64.6 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.2 21.5 0.9 61.8 59.4 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 23.4 23.0 21.2 0.7 61.5 58.7 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 24.1 24.4 19.9 1.0 64.2 61.0 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 23.6 23.7 22.2 1.0 67.1 61.0 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 24.2 24.3 20.9 1.0 62.9 60.0 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.2 18.1 18.6 0.5 56.4 56.3 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 24.0 24.3 23.4 1.5 71.5 63.5 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------