***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 25.3 28.5 27.5 4.8 97.1 94.4 21.8 22.8 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 26.1 28.8 28.1 5.4 97.5 94.7 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 25.7 28.5 27.9 5.0 96.8 94.2 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 18.8 20.4 23.9 4.1 95.2 92.7 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 26.0 27.9 24.7 3.4 92.0 88.7 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 25.4 26.4 22.2 2.8 87.1 83.9 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 25.6 28.5 27.8 5.2 97.3 94.0 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 14.7 15.9 22.4 3.1 88.5 86.5 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 25.8 27.9 25.4 3.4 91.5 89.0 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 25.5 27.1 23.5 3.2 89.0 87.1 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 25.7 27.1 24.9 3.2 90.8 86.8 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 25.1 26.6 23.5 3.1 89.4 86.6 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 26.1 27.5 24.3 2.9 88.5 84.3 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 26.7 29.2 26.4 4.8 96.2 93.6 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 26.0 28.2 26.6 4.4 97.1 95.5 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 26.8 28.2 24.4 3.2 91.4 86.7 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 24.9 28.1 27.5 5.3 96.6 93.4 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 24.9 26.9 23.1 3.7 93.0 89.6 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 25.4 28.8 28.3 5.5 97.8 95.2 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 21.2 22.4 20.9 3.3 90.2 88.4 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 25.7 27.6 26.4 3.7 92.4 90.3 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 25.7 29.4 27.2 4.9 95.3 92.2 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 25.9 29.1 28.5 5.8 98.1 96.2 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 25.9 27.8 25.9 4.3 95.9 92.2 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 25.1 27.2 25.5 3.9 93.4 90.9 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 26.1 27.4 23.3 3.4 91.0 87.7 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 25.6 27.8 26.5 4.4 95.6 92.7 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 26.2 27.4 24.8 3.8 93.7 91.6 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 20.6 21.9 22.4 3.6 92.9 89.4 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 25.9 28.8 28.1 5.3 97.4 94.8 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------