***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.1 12.3 0.5 59.7 59.1 9.0 9.4 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.3 12.0 0.7 62.4 62.1 8.9 9.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.8 12.5 0.7 64.8 63.2 11.0 11.9 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.8 9.6 0.5 62.9 60.4 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 9.9 0.3 54.7 55.0 8.4 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.4 7.8 0.2 54.0 54.2 7.4 8.1 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.7 12.1 0.7 64.2 62.0 9.0 9.7 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.4 7.9 0.4 59.3 58.7 3.6 4.0 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.9 10.0 0.2 51.8 53.7 9.4 9.9 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.8 8.7 0.3 56.8 57.4 8.9 9.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.3 9.3 0.3 54.8 55.4 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.5 8.5 0.3 57.2 57.1 7.5 8.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.5 7.9 -0.2 42.7 46.0 7.8 9.0 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.2 10.1 0.4 56.7 58.5 9.5 9.8 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.8 10.9 0.6 65.1 63.2 9.7 9.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.1 8.6 0.1 51.2 52.0 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.6 11.7 0.6 63.2 61.1 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.8 8.0 0.4 57.9 58.5 7.8 8.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 10.5 10.6 12.2 0.8 67.3 64.8 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.0 6.4 0.3 54.8 55.9 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.4 11.3 0.3 53.0 55.0 8.9 9.4 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 9.6 9.9 11.8 0.7 65.2 63.3 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.5 12.3 1.0 74.7 68.3 8.4 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.7 9.9 0.5 58.7 59.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.0 11.0 0.2 52.0 54.3 9.3 9.9 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.8 7.7 0.0 50.1 50.2 8.4 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.2 11.6 0.3 53.3 54.7 9.1 9.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.0 9.7 0.4 61.0 59.0 7.6 8.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.0 7.5 0.4 57.1 58.2 7.0 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 10.7 11.1 12.4 0.8 65.5 63.6 9.1 9.9 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------