***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.4 11.3 -0.1 45.9 48.4 7.9 9.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.4 10.0 11.0 0.0 47.7 49.0 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.6 11.4 0.0 47.7 49.7 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 6.6 8.4 -0.2 48.3 48.1 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.5 8.6 -0.3 45.2 46.5 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.2 8.2 7.0 -0.1 46.5 48.5 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.6 11.1 0.0 48.9 49.3 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.0 6.9 -0.2 44.7 48.0 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.5 8.9 -0.3 43.3 46.3 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.0 8.7 7.6 -0.2 43.7 46.9 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.8 8.0 -0.2 46.5 47.2 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.6 7.4 -0.2 44.0 47.8 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.7 8.2 6.9 -0.4 42.7 45.6 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.4 9.0 -0.2 43.3 47.8 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.0 9.5 0.0 49.3 49.8 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.7 7.5 -0.3 45.7 46.6 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.7 10.6 -0.2 45.8 47.1 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 8.1 6.9 -0.2 44.6 47.7 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.7 11.1 0.0 49.5 49.6 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.7 5.3 -0.3 44.0 47.3 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.1 10.3 -0.2 44.2 47.1 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.0 10.6 -0.1 49.0 48.2 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.2 11.0 0.1 50.2 50.2 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.8 8.8 -0.1 45.2 48.2 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.8 9.8 -0.3 44.0 46.6 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.9 8.8 7.0 -0.1 45.6 48.7 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.7 10.1 10.5 -0.2 44.7 47.1 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.1 8.2 8.6 -0.2 48.3 48.0 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 6.8 6.5 -0.2 44.0 47.7 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.3 11.3 0.1 48.5 49.9 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------