***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9.3 10.8 12.7 0.4 56.8 55.3 9.8 10.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.6 11.0 12.4 0.5 60.4 56.4 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 11.4 13.2 12.9 0.6 63.2 58.1 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.4 8.2 10.0 0.3 53.4 55.1 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 8.0 9.9 10.3 0.1 47.7 51.6 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.8 7.9 0.0 47.4 50.1 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 11.7 11.1 12.5 0.6 62.2 57.0 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.5 8.2 0.2 51.6 53.1 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.1 10.3 0.1 48.2 51.1 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 10.0 9.0 0.2 51.2 52.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.8 9.8 0.1 50.4 52.1 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.8 8.9 0.1 51.4 52.3 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.9 8.3 -0.3 43.2 45.3 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.9 10.4 0.3 58.9 54.4 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 11.9 11.2 11.6 0.6 61.3 59.2 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.5 9.0 -0.1 46.9 48.3 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 11.4 10.7 12.0 0.4 59.2 54.9 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.2 8.3 0.2 53.7 52.9 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.0 12.5 0.7 62.6 58.2 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.3 6.6 0.0 48.2 50.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.2 11.6 0.1 49.3 51.9 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.1 12.2 0.5 60.2 56.5 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 10.9 10.5 12.7 0.9 67.0 60.9 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.2 10.4 0.4 59.3 55.2 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.4 10.7 11.5 0.1 47.8 51.6 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.5 8.2 -0.1 46.1 48.8 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 9.1 11.6 11.9 0.1 51.1 52.0 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 7.7 9.4 10.2 0.3 55.0 55.0 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.4 7.7 0.2 53.2 52.9 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 11.8 11.6 12.8 0.7 64.0 58.1 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------