***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.9 14.9 1.4 68.0 68.2 10.3 10.9 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 12.1 12.3 14.7 1.8 73.3 73.3 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.7 15.3 1.8 73.6 74.1 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 9.8 10.2 12.7 1.7 78.4 75.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 11.0 11.0 12.9 1.1 67.1 65.8 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 9.6 9.7 10.2 0.8 64.7 63.8 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.4 14.8 1.8 73.0 73.5 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.0 10.6 1.2 70.9 69.4 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 11.5 11.5 12.5 0.7 59.1 59.8 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 48 52 100 11.6 11.6 11.4 1.1 69.3 67.9 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 10.8 11.2 12.3 0.9 64.2 63.6 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 9.6 10.0 11.4 1.1 66.5 66.7 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.1 10.3 -0.2 46.4 45.6 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 12.0 11.9 12.6 1.2 66.9 67.0 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 12.7 12.8 14.3 1.6 77.7 76.2 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 11.4 11.7 11.5 0.6 58.2 59.0 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.4 12.7 14.5 1.9 75.7 75.5 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 10.8 11.1 10.8 1.2 71.3 69.6 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 12.6 12.7 15.1 2.1 77.4 76.9 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 6.7 7.0 9.2 1.1 69.5 67.8 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 11.0 11.1 13.7 0.8 61.5 61.3 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 11.8 12.1 14.8 2.0 75.8 75.8 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 12.0 12.6 15.4 2.4 83.2 82.1 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 11.5 11.3 12.6 1.2 68.5 68.0 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.0 13.9 1.0 62.8 62.5 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.2 9.8 0.0 46.6 47.6 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 11.8 12.0 14.0 0.9 59.9 61.3 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.9 12.7 1.3 72.7 71.2 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 9.8 10.1 10.2 1.3 71.1 69.7 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.1 15.2 1.9 74.7 74.8 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------