***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 41.2 86.1 45.8 43.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 48.4 49.0 49.0 102.6 55.6 51.0 30.7 43.3 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 36.0 40.9 40.3 85.1 45.3 41.2 35.5 46.9 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 44.4 65.0 40.4 77.0 40.3 39.0 61.2 69.5 82.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 29.2 34.2 38.2 73.1 35.6 36.8 33.4 50.1 64.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 28.2 28.2 44.3 68.8 26.2 32.3 31.9 47.3 61.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 45.9 47.2 50.0 103.1 58.0 51.4 28.3 39.8 53.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 47.5 53.7 41.6 69.5 30.9 32.4 54.0 70.0 80.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 31.1 38.8 39.1 76.1 37.2 37.2 35.0 44.9 64.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 36.4 39.6 42.3 72.6 32.9 33.9 39.6 49.8 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 28.0 29.5 35.2 69.9 32.6 34.6 29.8 43.5 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 22.9 30.3 34.2 67.3 29.8 32.5 31.9 39.3 66.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 33.1 34.7 40.0 68.6 27.0 32.3 36.8 48.4 62.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 44.0 58.7 50.2 82.3 39.5 38.6 56.2 65.8 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 28.9 40.6 39.4 77.9 42.8 38.8 31.0 46.6 63.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 26.1 30.2 37.4 70.0 31.6 34.0 31.7 39.8 49.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 41.8 48.2 52.4 108.0 59.3 54.3 22.8 38.8 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 36.2 46.0 50.4 76.1 34.6 34.2 44.0 53.4 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 48.2 44.5 46.8 98.1 51.7 48.7 36.7 43.8 54.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 43.1 45.6 63.1 75.8 34.6 34.7 45.1 56.3 71.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 35.2 40.9 37.4 78.4 40.8 38.5 37.4 48.0 56.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 45.1 45.0 52.2 104.6 57.6 53.3 32.7 41.0 50.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.7 41.4 44.7 90.4 46.9 44.4 38.4 42.6 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 36.1 50.9 45.8 79.8 39.2 36.7 44.0 59.3 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 36.2 52.2 44.7 82.7 44.2 40.8 38.5 54.6 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 30.3 34.3 38.8 72.2 35.3 34.5 33.0 46.6 57.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 34.3 46.7 46.4 87.7 46.3 44.0 35.8 47.7 60.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 29.2 40.6 38.5 74.9 39.4 37.7 39.1 46.5 54.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 57.2 65.1 57.1 78.5 36.9 35.7 61.9 79.8 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 43.6 38.7 46.5 97.8 52.0 48.7 29.3 37.8 45.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------