***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 133.3 71.9 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 14.8 20.0 14.6 169.3 78.1 62.6 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 25.7 13.2 139.3 72.6 57.8 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 20.1 13.9 124.3 71.7 57.7 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 23.2 13.6 123.4 72.5 58.7 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.6 20.3 14.5 102.8 66.0 54.9 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.0 20.6 14.3 162.4 77.4 62.1 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.6 22.3 14.1 108.1 66.6 56.5 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 20.2 14.0 126.8 73.5 58.7 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 18.9 15.1 120.1 70.7 58.2 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 17.3 16.4 12.9 120.1 71.6 59.7 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 17.0 11.7 110.5 68.7 57.3 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.0 20.4 12.5 107.9 67.3 57.1 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 34.2 17.6 144.7 74.8 59.7 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 15.7 14.0 131.1 72.7 57.5 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.4 16.8 12.6 113.4 71.3 59.0 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 11.8 18.0 14.9 178.8 83.5 65.1 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 22.6 17.6 122.9 72.6 57.6 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 18.0 25.5 14.6 167.7 78.0 62.5 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 13.5 19.6 105.0 65.5 55.7 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 20.8 12.9 130.4 72.2 58.3 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 17.0 23.9 14.9 177.5 81.6 66.8 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 17.4 23.5 14.9 157.3 75.2 61.4 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.9 24.1 16.0 133.0 72.7 57.8 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.8 13.7 124.9 69.9 55.8 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.5 21.3 12.3 113.9 67.1 56.9 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.9 18.2 13.5 130.8 70.6 56.6 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.6 19.1 13.8 123.7 73.8 58.5 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.9 26.6 19.4 121.2 70.4 57.2 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.5 19.6 13.9 156.9 74.9 60.6 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------