***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 9.1 94.3 61.4 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 10.9 10.2 103.1 64.4 49.6 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.0 8.3 86.4 60.2 46.8 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.1 14.2 9.4 87.2 58.4 46.7 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.8 8.4 78.4 53.7 45.3 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.3 5.1 11.1 87.6 54.4 47.3 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.6 9.3 10.8 107.7 63.3 50.8 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.8 15.0 9.2 76.0 52.6 45.6 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.2 8.0 74.5 53.4 44.5 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.9 10.8 8.8 72.6 50.4 43.9 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.5 7.9 79.0 52.4 46.1 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.8 8.0 80.7 54.6 46.9 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 5.6 9.7 81.6 51.5 46.4 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 10.2 75.7 55.7 44.9 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.2 13.8 9.5 96.1 62.4 48.7 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 3.9 8.7 83.1 52.9 47.2 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.5 11.0 11.0 104.8 64.3 50.8 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 10.6 10.2 72.1 51.2 43.0 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 8.4 9.4 94.5 62.2 48.2 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 13.3 13.9 74.7 50.8 43.9 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 9.1 11.1 8.1 81.2 58.5 47.1 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.9 12.4 10.7 98.5 65.4 49.6 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.9 8.7 81.4 58.0 45.7 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.6 9.1 74.6 54.2 43.9 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.5 5.6 10.6 90.6 57.6 47.8 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.4 7.4 9.2 83.8 57.6 44.8 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.4 10.7 95.7 59.4 48.3 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.0 8.9 89.4 58.8 47.6 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 11.7 11.7 72.8 51.3 43.2 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.3 9.7 100.6 63.8 48.7 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------