***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 92.1 58.8 48.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 11.6 13.3 111.2 69.0 51.2 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.5 9.8 83.1 55.2 45.8 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.5 15.1 8.0 64.9 56.8 42.4 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.2 11.4 7.6 58.4 55.1 38.5 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.3 3.7 8.0 44.7 42.5 33.7 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.6 10.2 13.6 114.3 66.2 52.3 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 4.0 11.2 7.7 49.9 45.1 32.7 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.0 12.7 8.0 60.9 53.3 39.4 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.0 11.9 8.4 56.0 48.0 34.8 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.4 10.0 6.4 49.3 50.2 35.1 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.6 4.2 5.8 44.7 45.6 33.2 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.6 5.3 7.0 44.1 40.7 32.1 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.4 14.0 12.8 80.1 57.0 41.0 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.3 7.5 63.2 56.4 41.9 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.7 5.6 6.7 46.5 44.4 35.0 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.5 14.5 116.3 69.1 52.2 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.1 7.6 10.8 62.2 44.9 35.8 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.2 12.6 105.3 67.2 50.0 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 3.1 8.7 14.2 65.1 43.3 36.1 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 14.5 8.0 69.4 56.0 43.4 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.9 12.7 14.3 108.4 70.5 52.7 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.9 11.7 11.8 95.2 62.2 47.2 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.6 10.4 69.2 51.7 39.7 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.8 10.2 80.8 55.8 45.7 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.5 3.3 6.5 44.0 41.7 28.7 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.1 17.1 11.3 92.0 58.6 48.3 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.1 7.1 56.2 53.7 39.3 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 3.3 9.8 12.9 67.5 46.5 36.7 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.9 12.4 107.4 65.0 51.4 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------