***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.7 53.9 41.7 37.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 5.9 10.9 63.0 44.0 41.2 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.7 9.0 54.8 40.6 35.3 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 1.8 2.8 9.2 50.2 36.9 34.5 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 1.3 0.5 8.5 49.1 32.9 30.6 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.2 3.0 10.7 54.4 38.2 32.3 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 6.5 11.3 63.8 45.2 40.4 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 3.0 3.3 10.5 54.9 31.9 32.2 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.7 9.0 55.3 39.3 34.1 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 1.9 3.9 10.1 53.8 32.9 31.8 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 0.8 0.8 8.0 47.9 34.1 30.2 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 1.2 1.1 8.6 50.4 33.4 30.6 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.6 10.8 56.9 36.4 32.2 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.1 1.7 9.5 49.5 34.8 30.1 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 0.8 0.2 8.4 46.5 37.1 33.5 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.0 1.2 9.5 53.9 35.2 32.2 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.7 6.1 11.9 69.5 42.7 43.1 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 1.9 1.0 11.8 57.9 33.1 31.8 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 2.9 10.2 59.7 42.0 39.7 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 5.2 5.2 15.5 63.9 33.6 33.9 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.3 8.5 51.9 41.6 34.7 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.8 5.2 12.3 70.4 43.1 43.9 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.8 9.3 55.2 40.1 36.2 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 2.0 3.6 10.3 56.8 36.5 31.8 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.4 4.1 10.1 54.0 39.7 35.7 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.6 4.0 10.7 62.5 42.5 35.2 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.9 10.9 57.1 42.0 38.4 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 0.8 0.5 8.7 49.6 36.4 33.4 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 4.1 6.5 13.1 60.9 33.7 33.3 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 2.4 10.4 59.7 44.7 39.8 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------