***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 22.4 2.3 91.1 78.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 22.9 23.5 21.9 1.9 86.7 74.0 21.1 22.1 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 23.1 23.8 22.3 2.2 89.8 77.4 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 16.1 17.1 20.7 2.2 89.8 78.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 23.4 24.2 21.1 2.3 89.9 78.6 21.4 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 22.6 23.3 19.7 2.5 90.3 80.9 20.4 21.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 22.4 23.0 21.8 1.9 85.3 74.4 20.9 21.5 22.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 12.7 13.4 19.6 2.2 86.0 77.7 11.4 12.0 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 23.2 23.9 21.7 2.4 91.9 79.5 21.3 22.1 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 23.1 23.8 20.4 2.3 88.8 78.7 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 23.4 24.1 21.0 2.4 89.5 79.4 21.4 22.0 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 23.0 23.6 20.6 2.3 87.0 78.6 20.5 21.7 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 23.8 24.3 20.5 2.5 86.2 79.5 21.2 22.6 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 23.6 24.4 20.7 1.8 84.0 73.4 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 22.7 23.7 21.4 2.4 93.8 80.6 20.9 22.1 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 24.2 24.6 20.8 2.5 88.1 79.8 22.0 23.2 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 22.1 22.5 21.3 1.7 82.9 71.5 20.6 21.3 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 22.3 23.0 19.6 2.2 87.4 77.0 20.3 21.1 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 22.6 23.3 22.0 2.0 86.6 74.7 20.8 21.7 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 18.9 19.3 17.4 1.9 84.0 75.0 16.8 18.0 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 23.1 23.8 22.1 2.2 90.2 78.2 21.2 22.0 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 22.9 23.4 21.1 1.5 79.6 69.6 21.0 22.0 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 22.8 23.5 22.0 2.1 86.2 75.6 21.1 21.9 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 23.3 24.0 21.0 2.1 87.8 76.6 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 22.3 23.1 21.1 2.3 91.5 78.5 21.0 21.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 23.3 23.9 19.9 2.0 84.5 76.1 20.9 22.8 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 22.4 23.5 21.7 2.2 91.1 78.4 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 23.2 24.2 21.2 2.3 90.4 79.0 20.8 22.0 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 18.0 18.9 18.6 2.0 85.9 75.6 15.9 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 22.6 23.3 22.2 2.0 87.8 75.6 20.9 21.6 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------