***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.5 0.7 64.2 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 17.5 20.0 18.1 0.4 60.8 52.5 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 17.5 20.6 18.5 0.6 63.2 54.5 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 10.8 13.5 16.9 0.7 63.4 56.7 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 18.3 20.7 17.2 0.7 61.5 57.2 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 19.8 20.5 16.1 1.0 64.0 61.5 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 17.0 19.8 18.1 0.5 62.1 53.2 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.0 15.9 0.6 60.7 58.2 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 18.3 20.5 17.6 0.7 62.6 57.2 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 18.1 20.1 16.6 0.6 61.9 57.4 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 20.4 20.1 17.1 0.8 62.1 59.2 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.6 16.9 0.7 61.2 59.5 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.7 16.7 0.9 62.4 60.4 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 17.9 20.3 17.0 0.1 55.8 52.9 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 17.6 20.3 17.3 0.9 65.0 58.4 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 21.1 21.2 17.0 0.9 63.3 60.0 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 16.9 18.9 17.7 0.4 58.6 52.3 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 17.2 19.5 15.9 0.4 60.7 55.9 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 17.2 20.1 18.3 0.4 60.9 52.7 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.5 13.9 0.2 58.1 55.9 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 17.9 20.6 18.1 0.7 63.7 56.1 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 17.5 19.8 17.6 0.2 56.2 51.3 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 17.8 20.5 18.2 0.4 60.7 53.2 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 18.1 20.4 17.2 0.4 61.2 54.7 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 17.5 19.8 17.2 0.8 63.3 56.6 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.5 16.4 0.6 60.0 58.9 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 17.6 19.9 17.8 0.8 63.0 56.2 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 17.4 20.1 17.3 0.8 64.0 57.9 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.3 15.8 15.0 0.3 58.5 55.4 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 17.2 20.0 18.4 0.5 61.9 53.3 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------