***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 22.4 2.6 80.4 71.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 22.6 23.0 22.0 2.4 77.6 68.7 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 23.2 24.3 22.5 2.6 79.8 70.1 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 16.7 18.2 20.8 2.4 81.7 70.2 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 23.3 24.6 21.1 2.5 82.2 70.7 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 22.0 24.2 19.8 2.7 84.9 72.9 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 22.3 22.8 21.9 2.4 77.7 69.0 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 12.7 13.2 19.8 2.5 78.5 69.8 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 23.1 24.5 21.6 2.6 82.6 71.2 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 22.8 23.6 20.5 2.6 80.0 70.4 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 23.3 24.3 21.0 2.6 82.0 71.6 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 22.8 23.7 20.8 2.6 80.1 70.8 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 23.4 24.7 20.5 2.7 80.9 71.8 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 23.4 23.6 21.0 2.3 75.7 67.2 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 22.8 24.3 21.1 2.5 85.3 71.8 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 24.0 25.2 20.8 2.7 81.7 72.0 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 21.6 22.0 21.5 2.2 75.5 67.5 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 22.4 23.0 19.8 2.5 78.3 69.1 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 22.6 23.2 22.2 2.5 77.9 68.9 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 18.6 18.9 17.7 2.2 75.7 67.6 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 23.2 24.1 22.1 2.6 81.9 70.8 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 22.7 23.0 21.4 2.1 73.1 66.2 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 22.9 23.5 22.2 2.5 78.8 68.9 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 22.9 23.7 21.2 2.5 78.9 69.1 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 22.3 23.5 21.1 2.5 81.1 70.4 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 23.0 23.9 20.1 2.4 78.9 69.9 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 22.9 23.9 21.7 2.6 81.2 70.5 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 23.3 24.7 21.1 2.4 82.9 71.1 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 18.0 18.3 18.9 2.4 76.3 68.1 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 22.3 22.8 22.3 2.5 78.6 69.5 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------