***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 24.0 2.9 84.2 76.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 24.0 25.3 23.4 2.5 82.7 72.5 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 24.5 25.5 24.0 2.9 82.7 75.2 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.1 18.2 22.8 3.2 86.0 78.1 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 25.0 26.6 23.0 3.3 84.7 78.2 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 24.0 26.3 22.1 4.2 91.5 83.4 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 23.8 24.8 23.3 2.5 82.7 72.5 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 13.4 15.0 21.7 3.6 85.9 78.8 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 24.4 25.8 23.4 3.4 85.0 78.1 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 24.0 26.0 22.3 3.5 85.9 78.3 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 24.5 26.4 22.9 3.6 86.8 79.5 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 24.1 25.7 22.8 3.8 86.8 79.9 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 25.3 26.4 22.6 4.0 87.4 81.4 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 24.7 26.1 22.4 2.8 83.1 72.5 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 24.6 26.6 23.2 3.3 92.7 79.7 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 25.6 26.9 22.9 3.8 87.9 80.8 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 23.4 24.5 22.8 2.3 81.5 70.4 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 23.4 24.9 21.5 3.4 85.3 76.8 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 23.7 26.0 23.6 2.7 83.4 73.1 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 19.7 20.5 19.4 3.3 85.7 76.9 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 24.4 26.0 23.8 3.1 84.9 76.8 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 24.1 25.1 22.6 2.1 77.9 69.0 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 24.0 26.2 23.6 2.8 84.1 73.6 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 24.5 25.7 22.7 3.2 84.4 75.5 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 23.5 25.4 22.8 3.1 86.3 77.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 24.2 25.4 22.2 3.6 85.2 79.5 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 23.7 25.1 23.2 2.9 84.6 76.1 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 24.3 26.8 23.2 3.4 89.0 79.5 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 18.5 19.8 20.5 3.3 84.9 76.0 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 24.0 25.2 23.7 2.7 82.4 73.6 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------