***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 24.7 2.9 86.2 80.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 25.0 26.1 24.0 2.3 77.1 74.4 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 25.1 26.1 24.5 2.6 80.1 77.6 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 18.5 19.7 22.4 2.6 86.9 80.3 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 25.8 26.7 23.2 2.7 86.5 79.4 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 25.1 25.6 20.8 2.1 77.8 74.1 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 24.7 25.6 23.9 2.4 75.4 74.9 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.9 20.9 2.2 78.7 73.6 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 25.6 26.6 24.1 2.9 86.6 80.8 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 25.2 26.0 22.2 2.6 83.7 77.2 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 25.5 26.0 22.8 2.5 84.5 77.5 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 24.8 25.2 21.9 2.2 78.5 74.2 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 26.0 26.4 22.2 2.3 80.2 74.7 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 25.4 26.4 22.6 2.1 75.9 71.8 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 25.7 26.8 24.0 2.7 88.8 82.2 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 26.6 27.2 22.6 2.5 82.5 77.0 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 23.8 24.4 23.2 2.1 73.9 71.3 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 24.4 25.0 21.1 2.3 78.9 74.7 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 24.5 25.5 24.1 2.4 78.3 75.0 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 20.6 20.9 18.8 2.0 74.9 71.2 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 25.4 26.1 24.4 2.6 82.6 77.9 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 49 51 100 24.3 25.4 22.9 1.8 71.8 68.9 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 25.0 26.4 24.0 2.5 79.8 76.0 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 25.2 26.3 22.8 2.4 79.7 74.9 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 24.8 26.6 23.4 2.7 86.9 79.3 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 25.7 26.1 21.0 1.6 68.3 67.4 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 25.1 26.4 23.9 2.7 85.3 79.3 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 26.0 26.9 23.1 2.5 85.8 79.8 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 20.2 20.6 20.1 2.2 76.9 72.9 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 25.1 26.0 24.3 2.5 78.9 76.6 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------