***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 0.0 13.2 1.7 87.3 79.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.4 12.3 1.3 81.7 74.1 8.9 9.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.4 12.7 1.5 84.5 77.6 11.0 11.9 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 8.4 8.9 10.8 1.4 85.4 79.8 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 10.3 10.8 10.8 1.4 85.6 79.1 8.4 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 9.2 9.6 9.2 1.6 88.7 81.7 7.4 8.1 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.4 12.5 1.4 81.7 75.7 9.0 9.7 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 5.0 5.4 9.2 1.3 86.9 78.0 3.6 4.0 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 11.0 11.6 11.4 1.5 87.8 80.1 9.4 9.9 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 10.6 11.3 9.8 1.3 86.3 78.0 8.9 9.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 10.2 10.7 10.4 1.4 85.5 79.7 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 9.0 9.5 10.0 1.4 87.7 79.4 7.5 8.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 9.8 10.2 9.6 1.4 87.1 78.7 7.8 9.0 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 10.7 11.4 10.9 1.2 83.1 74.1 9.5 9.8 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 10.9 11.3 11.7 1.7 89.4 83.3 9.7 9.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 11.2 11.7 10.1 1.5 86.3 80.4 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.2 11.8 1.1 75.8 71.1 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 9.7 10.2 9.0 1.2 83.9 76.0 7.8 8.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 10.5 11.1 12.3 1.3 82.8 74.8 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.5 7.6 1.2 82.3 74.7 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 10.8 11.2 12.3 1.6 86.0 78.8 8.9 9.4 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 9.6 10.2 11.7 1.0 73.1 70.7 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.1 11.0 12.2 1.4 84.8 76.3 8.4 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.6 10.8 1.3 84.7 76.4 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 11.2 11.8 11.8 1.6 88.1 79.6 9.3 9.9 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 9.8 10.2 9.6 1.3 85.6 77.0 8.4 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 11.5 12.4 12.4 1.7 87.3 79.3 9.1 9.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 9.6 10.0 11.1 1.5 87.2 81.1 7.6 8.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 8.6 9.1 8.4 1.2 84.1 75.2 7.0 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.8 11.5 12.7 1.4 83.3 76.2 9.1 9.9 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------