***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 1.0 70.6 61.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.8 9.9 0.8 66.6 58.7 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.9 10.1 0.9 68.6 60.9 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.5 8.2 0.8 70.1 61.9 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.9 8.4 8.2 0.8 67.1 60.7 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.6 6.7 0.9 69.0 63.0 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.2 9.9 0.8 68.6 59.1 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.0 6.9 0.7 63.9 60.3 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.0 8.8 0.8 66.3 61.1 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.4 7.4 0.7 63.5 60.0 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.4 8.0 0.8 67.0 61.2 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.6 7.5 7.6 0.8 66.0 61.1 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 8.4 8.1 7.1 0.7 66.9 60.5 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.9 8.5 0.6 63.5 58.2 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 9.3 9.8 8.9 1.1 77.4 65.6 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 9.5 9.1 7.6 0.8 67.7 61.8 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.3 9.5 0.6 65.9 57.1 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.4 6.7 0.6 61.9 58.3 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.9 9.9 0.8 66.8 59.3 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.6 4.2 5.3 0.5 60.5 57.2 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.5 9.7 0.9 68.1 61.1 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.0 9.4 0.6 64.4 56.6 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.5 9.8 0.8 67.5 60.1 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.6 8.4 0.8 64.5 59.6 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 9.2 9.7 9.0 0.9 72.0 61.8 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 8.5 8.2 7.4 0.7 64.9 60.5 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.6 9.7 0.9 70.6 61.6 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.3 8.5 0.9 72.4 63.4 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.4 6.2 0.5 59.9 57.2 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.1 10.2 0.9 67.8 59.9 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------