***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 13.0 2.1 80.8 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 11.2 11.5 12.4 1.8 76.8 69.9 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.7 12.6 2.0 81.2 72.5 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 8.7 9.6 10.6 1.8 82.8 74.2 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 10.4 11.0 10.6 1.8 82.2 73.5 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 9.6 10.1 9.1 2.0 84.2 76.4 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.2 12.3 1.7 77.9 69.1 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 5.2 5.7 9.3 1.8 82.0 74.1 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 11.5 12.2 11.1 1.9 83.5 73.7 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 10.5 11.5 9.7 1.8 81.7 73.0 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 10.3 10.9 10.2 1.8 82.0 74.2 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 8.9 9.4 10.0 1.9 83.0 75.2 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 9.9 10.5 9.4 1.9 81.8 74.4 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 11.1 11.6 10.9 1.8 81.0 72.3 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 11.5 12.2 11.3 2.1 87.3 76.7 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 11.2 11.9 9.9 1.9 81.9 74.8 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.1 11.9 1.6 78.3 68.1 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 9.9 10.5 9.1 1.8 81.2 73.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 10.9 11.4 12.4 1.9 78.9 71.3 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.2 7.9 1.8 78.9 72.6 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 10.8 11.4 12.1 2.0 81.7 72.9 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.4 11.8 1.6 78.7 68.2 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 10.5 11.1 12.3 2.0 80.1 73.2 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 10.0 10.7 10.9 1.9 82.7 73.7 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 11.4 12.1 11.5 2.0 82.3 73.3 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.5 9.5 1.7 80.4 73.3 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.6 12.1 2.0 80.5 71.5 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 9.7 10.7 10.9 1.9 84.8 75.0 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.4 8.6 1.7 79.8 72.6 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.6 12.6 1.9 77.8 70.5 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------