***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 1.8 73.9 70.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.7 13.2 1.3 69.8 67.1 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 13.3 13.3 13.5 1.5 70.8 68.9 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 9.4 9.6 11.6 1.4 72.3 69.0 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.3 11.6 1.5 73.6 69.7 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 9.8 10.3 10.2 1.7 79.5 73.9 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.9 13.3 1.4 71.3 68.6 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 5.1 5.0 10.1 1.5 72.3 70.3 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.6 12.2 1.6 74.6 70.8 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.0 10.8 10.6 1.5 70.7 69.7 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.5 11.2 1.6 75.3 71.0 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.8 10.1 10.9 1.6 74.3 71.1 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.7 10.4 1.6 74.9 71.2 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.6 11.6 1.3 71.4 67.2 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.1 12.3 1.6 76.3 71.4 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.9 10.9 1.6 74.8 71.3 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 10.5 11.6 12.7 1.2 69.8 65.8 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.9 10.1 9.9 1.4 69.0 68.9 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.5 11.4 13.1 1.3 69.4 67.0 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.7 8.8 1.6 74.7 70.9 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.5 13.1 1.6 72.6 70.0 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.4 12.5 1.1 69.1 64.6 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.6 13.0 1.3 69.9 67.6 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.6 11.6 1.4 69.8 68.6 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.8 12.5 1.7 72.0 70.6 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.6 10.7 1.5 75.3 70.4 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.5 12.6 13.3 1.8 73.7 71.2 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.3 11.9 1.5 74.1 70.2 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.0 9.4 1.4 71.7 69.2 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.8 13.5 1.4 71.0 68.4 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------