***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 0.0 15.2 2.1 76.1 76.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 11.3 11.9 13.8 1.2 67.2 65.9 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 14.5 14.7 14.6 1.7 72.4 72.7 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 9.7 10.2 12.6 1.7 77.7 75.7 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.1 12.8 1.6 75.2 73.9 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 10.9 11.4 10.9 1.7 79.6 77.0 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.4 14.3 1.6 71.9 70.6 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 6.0 6.0 10.6 1.3 71.1 69.6 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 12.0 11.9 13.4 1.7 76.2 75.5 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.7 11.6 11.5 1.3 70.0 69.9 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 11.3 11.4 12.3 1.5 73.6 73.1 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.6 10.6 11.4 1.4 73.3 72.4 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 11.1 11.1 11.4 1.5 73.1 73.6 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 12.0 11.9 12.4 1.0 67.0 64.5 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 12.7 13.1 14.3 2.1 84.6 80.2 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 12.2 12.4 12.1 1.7 76.7 75.7 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.7 12.3 13.0 0.9 63.3 61.7 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.3 11.0 10.3 1.0 64.7 65.6 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 12.4 12.0 13.9 1.2 67.8 66.4 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.5 8.3 0.8 60.4 61.8 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 11.7 11.5 14.4 1.7 74.5 74.5 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 10.7 11.4 13.0 0.7 62.1 60.1 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.8 13.9 1.4 70.5 69.0 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.4 12.4 1.2 69.0 68.0 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 12.4 12.5 14.1 1.9 75.0 74.9 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 11.3 11.1 11.0 1.2 68.8 68.1 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 12.7 12.7 14.6 2.0 74.1 75.0 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 11.1 11.6 13.2 1.8 80.9 77.6 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 9.8 9.4 9.6 1.0 65.2 65.4 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.9 14.5 1.6 71.6 70.6 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------