***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 21.9 21.6 21.4 0.1 49.2 51.0 21.1 21.6 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.5 20.8 -0.5 37.4 42.6 21.4 22.1 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.2 21.5 -0.2 42.7 46.4 21.5 22.3 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.4 20.1 1.4 72.4 69.1 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 22.9 22.8 20.4 0.3 53.2 53.9 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.8 19.3 1.0 64.2 63.3 20.7 22.1 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.2 20.7 -0.5 36.7 42.9 21.1 21.5 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 19.1 0.3 52.2 53.0 11.7 12.2 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.4 20.9 0.2 49.7 52.7 21.6 22.4 23.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.3 19.7 0.4 53.1 54.2 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.3 20.5 0.1 49.3 50.7 21.5 22.3 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.2 20.2 0.3 52.4 53.1 20.8 22.1 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.3 20.2 0.3 54.5 54.1 21.7 23.0 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.2 20.1 -0.3 40.9 44.4 21.8 22.4 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.0 22.9 21.6 1.3 69.6 67.6 21.0 22.4 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 23.8 23.7 20.4 0.5 57.1 56.0 22.1 23.6 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.0 20.4 -0.5 38.1 42.5 21.0 21.4 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.3 19.0 0.2 50.8 51.7 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.4 21.0 -0.5 37.4 42.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 17.0 17.7 16.9 0.0 47.7 49.2 17.0 18.1 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.3 21.4 0.2 48.2 51.9 21.3 22.4 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.4 20.5 -0.4 38.1 42.6 21.4 21.8 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.5 21.1 -0.6 35.8 41.3 21.4 22.1 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.1 20.4 0.0 46.5 48.8 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.1 20.3 0.5 58.1 56.7 21.1 21.9 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.5 19.7 0.4 56.0 54.6 21.2 23.3 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.2 20.8 0.2 53.0 53.1 21.2 22.2 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 23.2 23.6 20.8 1.4 71.5 68.4 21.1 22.4 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 15.9 16.8 18.1 -0.1 47.0 48.5 16.2 16.9 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.4 21.0 -0.5 38.6 43.4 21.0 21.7 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------