***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 21.6 21.3 20.6 1.3 63.8 62.1 19.0 20.1 21.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.6 21.5 20.1 0.7 56.1 56.9 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 21.9 21.3 20.9 1.1 60.7 60.7 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 15.7 16.4 19.4 2.4 77.9 71.3 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 21.7 21.8 19.7 1.7 69.6 65.7 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 21.7 22.1 18.8 2.5 78.0 71.3 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 18.0 20.9 20.0 0.7 56.8 57.1 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 12.8 12.0 18.6 1.6 65.3 64.6 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 21.9 21.8 20.0 1.6 67.3 64.5 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 21.7 21.4 19.2 1.7 66.1 64.8 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 21.9 21.9 19.8 1.6 68.2 64.7 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 22.0 21.4 19.6 1.7 68.5 65.4 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 22.5 22.5 19.3 2.0 71.9 67.1 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 22.4 21.4 19.2 0.9 55.5 58.4 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 21.8 22.4 20.1 2.4 79.2 72.3 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 22.9 23.0 19.8 2.0 73.7 67.6 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 17.6 20.6 19.7 0.6 56.5 56.1 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 20.6 20.4 18.6 1.5 63.5 63.1 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 18.5 20.9 20.3 0.7 55.2 57.1 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 17.8 17.4 16.2 1.2 59.9 61.5 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 21.8 21.7 20.6 1.5 68.2 64.2 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 18.5 21.1 19.6 0.6 55.0 56.0 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.8 20.5 0.7 54.6 57.0 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 22.1 21.8 19.6 1.3 62.0 61.5 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 21.1 21.2 19.5 1.8 70.9 66.5 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 22.2 22.0 19.1 1.9 71.5 67.3 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 21.6 21.5 20.1 1.4 66.5 63.5 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 21.9 22.4 19.9 2.5 79.0 71.8 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 17.2 16.6 17.6 1.2 59.1 61.3 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 21.5 21.3 20.2 0.8 57.6 58.0 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------