***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.8 21.4 0.6 56.9 55.1 20.4 21.6 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.8 20.8 0.1 50.0 50.8 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.1 21.8 21.5 0.3 51.9 52.6 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.1 16.0 20.1 1.5 65.9 62.7 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 20.2 22.4 20.3 0.7 54.8 56.1 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.5 19.0 1.2 60.8 59.3 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.7 20.8 0.1 50.7 51.3 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.4 19.2 0.6 52.8 54.8 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.9 22.3 20.6 0.7 53.3 55.4 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 20.0 22.4 19.8 0.7 53.9 55.8 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.5 20.4 0.6 53.6 55.2 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.6 22.0 20.3 0.6 53.9 55.0 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.8 19.7 0.7 56.4 56.1 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.4 19.9 0.1 47.9 50.4 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 21.9 23.2 20.9 1.5 67.4 63.0 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.2 20.3 0.9 57.9 57.6 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 20.1 21.2 20.5 0.1 49.9 50.7 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.6 21.7 19.2 0.6 52.7 54.6 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.6 21.0 0.0 48.4 50.5 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.5 17.9 16.9 0.3 49.5 52.7 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.4 21.2 0.6 54.3 55.1 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 20.6 21.7 20.5 0.1 48.3 50.7 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.6 21.1 -0.1 46.2 49.4 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.3 20.3 0.4 51.1 53.2 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.0 22.0 20.2 1.0 60.7 58.6 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 20.6 22.3 19.6 0.6 53.9 54.5 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.1 20.8 0.8 58.8 56.9 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.2 23.8 20.5 1.5 66.9 62.9 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.3 18.3 0.3 50.2 52.7 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 20.2 22.0 21.0 0.1 51.3 51.3 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------