***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.2 22.6 0.8 57.2 56.8 21.3 23.0 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.8 22.0 0.0 49.2 50.6 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.3 22.7 0.4 54.2 53.7 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.7 21.2 2.2 75.3 68.6 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.4 21.6 1.0 58.9 58.8 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.0 20.4 1.7 69.2 65.1 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.6 21.8 0.0 50.1 51.1 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.4 20.3 1.1 60.4 59.6 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.6 22.1 0.9 58.4 57.7 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 24.9 23.6 21.0 1.2 61.7 59.9 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.3 24.3 21.8 0.8 57.4 56.9 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.6 21.4 1.0 60.2 59.4 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 25.4 24.8 21.5 1.0 62.3 59.5 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.4 21.4 0.3 52.0 53.3 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.6 22.9 2.0 73.6 67.1 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 25.8 25.2 21.6 1.1 62.7 60.2 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.9 21.5 0.0 50.6 50.5 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 23.7 21.9 20.2 1.0 58.3 58.4 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.7 22.2 0.0 48.9 50.5 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 19.4 19.0 18.2 0.8 56.0 58.0 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.9 24.1 22.6 0.8 58.1 57.2 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.3 23.0 21.6 0.0 48.9 50.6 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.9 22.3 -0.1 47.9 49.8 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.9 22.9 21.7 0.7 56.6 56.2 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.5 21.6 1.1 60.9 59.9 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.6 20.9 1.1 61.9 60.2 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.1 22.0 0.9 58.5 58.0 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.2 22.0 2.1 74.5 68.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 19.4 17.8 19.4 0.7 54.5 56.8 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.8 22.7 22.1 0.1 49.4 51.3 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------