***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 20.0 21.0 21.0 -2.2 26.2 27.4 21.6 22.6 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 20.8 20.9 20.5 -2.7 19.7 23.7 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 20.7 21.1 20.8 -2.8 20.0 23.1 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.5 19.6 -0.4 45.2 44.7 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 21.1 22.2 19.8 -2.3 22.7 26.9 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.3 19.1 -1.2 36.3 37.4 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 20.3 20.4 20.3 -2.7 18.9 23.0 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 11.6 11.9 18.3 -2.2 25.0 29.1 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 20.7 21.6 20.7 -2.3 23.2 26.9 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 20.3 21.6 19.0 -2.2 24.7 29.0 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 20.7 21.4 20.1 -2.8 19.1 23.9 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 20.0 21.6 19.4 -2.3 26.1 28.7 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 22.1 22.6 20.2 -2.4 23.1 26.4 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 20.6 21.3 19.8 -2.6 23.0 25.6 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.6 22.4 -0.6 42.7 43.5 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 22.4 23.5 20.1 -2.2 25.3 28.0 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 20.0 19.9 20.0 -2.5 20.5 25.1 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 19.4 21.1 18.0 -2.4 23.5 28.1 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 20.4 20.4 20.6 -2.8 20.0 23.4 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 16.8 16.8 16.2 -2.5 20.9 27.1 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 20.9 21.4 21.1 -2.3 22.9 26.2 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 20.3 20.2 20.2 -2.4 21.8 26.1 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 20.4 21.0 20.7 -2.9 20.4 23.3 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 20.5 20.9 19.9 -2.6 22.1 25.9 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 20.9 21.9 20.1 -2.0 27.2 27.8 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 22.4 22.3 19.2 -2.0 26.1 30.1 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 20.7 21.4 20.5 -2.1 26.9 27.5 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.3 23.3 20.9 -0.6 43.9 44.0 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 14.7 16.2 17.2 -2.6 21.8 26.7 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 20.4 20.6 20.6 -2.8 19.1 22.8 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------