***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 48.7 104.4 62.9 51.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 46.3 51.7 49.3 102.3 59.8 51.9 29.2 39.9 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 34.0 57.9 47.4 100.6 61.0 50.1 35.5 46.9 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 45.7 72.3 53.3 104.1 57.4 50.0 61.2 67.1 80.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 29.1 58.3 52.3 106.1 60.6 50.2 33.3 49.3 63.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 32.3 54.5 63.8 111.3 63.3 54.1 31.9 47.3 55.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 28.8 47.2 50.5 103.8 59.3 52.5 29.4 39.8 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 50.3 73.2 54.4 101.7 58.9 49.5 51.9 67.8 79.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 29.1 57.7 50.9 104.2 60.2 49.5 35.0 46.7 64.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 35.4 59.0 54.3 100.8 57.0 48.3 40.2 49.7 64.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 29.7 56.5 48.9 106.1 65.8 50.0 28.4 43.2 56.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 25.7 61.5 48.8 108.3 64.3 52.0 30.2 39.6 67.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 35.6 57.5 57.0 111.8 64.6 54.0 36.9 46.4 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 45.8 73.0 55.3 95.9 56.2 48.6 54.1 63.9 81.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 31.3 47.8 50.1 99.3 51.7 48.5 32.1 46.6 59.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.5 47.3 53.0 109.4 64.1 51.7 31.7 37.9 48.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 25.8 48.0 51.6 107.6 59.2 54.0 25.0 39.1 50.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 38.6 59.1 58.9 96.2 55.0 46.7 47.2 55.2 66.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 47.9 46.8 48.1 101.0 60.6 51.4 35.6 42.9 54.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 45.0 61.1 71.8 96.7 54.1 48.9 45.7 57.8 71.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 34.1 55.2 47.8 102.8 59.0 49.1 36.8 47.7 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 46.0 45.7 51.9 106.2 57.2 53.7 33.8 42.7 50.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 45.0 47.8 47.8 99.1 59.4 50.4 37.4 41.7 51.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 36.4 64.0 52.8 96.5 56.4 47.5 43.7 59.2 69.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 35.7 62.1 55.9 108.2 61.9 53.2 34.9 56.7 64.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 50.8 56.2 55.3 117.6 64.4 57.4 32.8 44.3 57.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 33.9 53.1 55.2 108.1 63.4 54.0 37.0 48.3 54.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 31.0 48.2 52.0 103.0 55.7 49.0 37.4 44.5 53.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 58.0 89.9 63.3 95.1 52.8 47.2 61.9 80.9 98.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 26.6 42.4 48.8 101.6 59.6 51.5 29.3 38.1 46.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------