***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 7.7 81.8 60.6 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 12.0 8.5 91.5 63.1 47.8 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.1 8.8 7.8 81.1 57.2 45.4 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 13.5 9.4 76.2 57.8 43.0 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.1 10.1 9.3 81.8 58.3 44.6 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.3 19.1 11.7 84.4 61.4 44.1 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.3 8.9 94.6 63.0 48.5 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 16.9 9.8 76.7 58.1 43.0 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.2 12.2 8.9 83.0 59.3 45.2 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 13.4 9.6 80.1 57.9 44.4 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.0 13.5 8.9 79.6 61.6 43.5 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 14.2 8.7 77.3 61.2 42.8 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.0 16.5 10.0 81.3 61.6 42.9 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.9 10.1 9.2 76.1 54.2 44.0 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.4 4.3 8.5 66.2 57.7 40.3 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 12.1 9.5 78.4 62.7 42.3 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.7 10.5 8.5 92.8 63.8 49.4 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 13.7 10.0 76.4 56.0 44.4 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.5 8.2 87.2 61.7 46.8 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.3 12.6 72.7 54.2 43.3 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 14.5 8.1 80.4 58.8 44.4 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 14.9 8.7 94.2 65.4 49.1 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.7 10.8 7.8 79.6 59.6 45.7 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.0 7.9 8.8 77.0 56.5 44.9 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.6 13.5 9.0 81.0 59.1 44.5 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.1 20.6 9.4 83.8 62.6 44.8 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.7 8.4 8.8 84.9 61.3 46.2 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.3 8.5 9.4 72.6 59.0 41.6 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 20.1 10.7 72.6 55.0 43.6 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.4 8.4 89.1 61.0 46.9 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------