***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 69.6 54.0 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.8 1.7 9.1 64.9 49.0 38.9 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.6 8.8 65.9 53.6 38.6 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.1 15.4 9.9 72.6 55.3 39.4 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.5 12.2 9.5 71.1 52.9 39.4 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.4 7.7 12.7 83.4 59.3 41.8 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.4 8.9 63.0 47.2 37.2 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.7 17.2 11.5 83.2 58.2 42.7 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.3 9.7 9.8 70.8 53.7 39.1 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.7 11.8 11.1 76.1 54.9 40.2 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.6 12.7 9.1 75.0 58.2 40.5 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.6 13.8 10.0 88.5 64.2 43.5 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.7 10.0 11.4 87.1 63.2 42.3 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.8 11.3 11.9 72.2 50.6 42.5 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.7 14.3 10.1 78.6 61.5 39.8 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.0 7.8 10.0 79.2 59.5 41.0 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.4 3.5 9.5 70.6 50.0 40.1 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.3 9.9 13.2 77.0 53.2 40.8 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.2 9.1 66.7 51.4 40.2 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 13.1 16.2 77.7 51.3 42.3 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.0 9.0 68.0 54.0 38.2 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.6 5.2 10.1 75.2 54.5 42.8 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.1 9.3 67.7 52.6 41.1 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.5 12.9 11.2 71.9 52.1 40.6 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.0 6.3 10.1 69.1 53.0 39.0 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 1.1 13.4 11.4 96.5 67.6 44.8 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 5.9 10.1 69.6 53.1 39.4 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.0 17.0 10.0 76.9 58.2 39.7 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.7 11.7 14.6 76.8 51.7 41.6 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.2 8.9 64.3 50.9 38.4 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------