***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 148.1 71.9 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.1 11.6 12.3 123.0 68.4 53.5 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.1 15.8 13.8 143.1 69.9 54.0 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 30.0 16.5 163.2 80.5 58.4 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.2 26.6 17.0 171.9 81.1 58.8 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.6 19.1 20.2 162.5 76.6 59.6 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.2 10.3 12.8 124.2 68.0 53.5 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 33.3 17.2 151.2 78.6 57.4 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 20.4 17.0 173.1 81.2 58.2 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.6 24.9 17.9 158.6 79.7 57.3 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.6 22.2 16.0 172.0 79.6 59.5 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.3 23.7 15.5 166.4 80.4 58.9 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.9 20.0 18.1 166.7 76.3 59.1 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 18.0 15.6 127.4 68.9 52.6 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.3 18.7 14.7 148.8 79.0 59.4 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.0 16.9 17.1 174.9 78.9 60.1 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.9 10.2 12.3 117.8 68.0 52.7 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 22.7 18.7 140.0 74.4 54.8 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.8 12.3 125.5 67.9 53.2 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 26.1 20.4 125.7 73.2 54.8 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.9 20.7 15.1 170.2 78.1 57.4 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.6 11.9 12.0 114.7 68.1 52.9 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.7 15.8 12.8 130.4 67.9 52.9 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 18.0 16.6 140.3 72.3 53.8 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.4 22.4 16.1 156.6 74.4 58.5 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.4 19.1 15.7 158.0 74.2 59.9 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 18.9 15.1 145.3 71.2 57.2 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.9 18.9 16.2 164.3 80.9 59.6 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.7 36.0 19.1 131.1 73.0 54.1 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.4 11.0 12.7 128.8 68.3 53.5 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------