***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 18.1 123.0 70.6 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 15.0 19.3 130.7 78.0 61.2 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.7 14.1 17.0 117.5 65.7 58.0 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.2 12.3 17.5 115.4 66.6 58.9 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 6.5 10.4 16.4 113.0 62.1 59.2 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.1 10.3 19.2 121.5 65.5 59.6 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.5 19.9 19.8 135.2 78.0 62.4 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 16.2 19.3 15.8 102.9 61.4 56.2 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 8.5 9.2 15.2 105.1 60.1 56.5 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.1 9.0 15.7 98.5 58.2 54.6 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 6.4 16.1 14.9 111.1 66.4 58.7 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.8 14.6 14.5 111.2 65.8 57.6 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.8 10.9 17.5 118.6 65.2 58.4 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.4 18.4 18.6 110.4 62.8 54.6 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.4 12.5 16.8 112.9 67.0 58.1 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.6 6.1 16.4 117.7 67.4 59.1 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.6 17.7 21.3 143.6 79.0 64.4 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 11.2 13.8 16.9 96.7 54.9 52.3 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.7 17.4 18.5 125.5 74.2 59.8 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 16.4 21.1 22.6 114.6 60.7 58.6 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 7.1 16.0 15.6 109.4 63.2 57.0 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 16.2 21.2 21.0 134.5 75.5 63.9 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.5 13.8 17.9 120.2 68.1 57.7 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.3 8.1 16.3 101.8 58.6 53.1 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.4 18.1 20.7 132.3 73.0 62.9 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.9 18.5 18.8 133.8 69.3 61.8 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.8 20.9 21.3 134.1 74.0 63.0 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 13.2 16.4 112.1 65.7 57.7 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 19.6 18.8 18.9 103.9 56.9 53.9 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.1 16.6 18.8 126.1 74.1 60.4 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------