***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 20.1 -0.2 52.3 47.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.2 19.9 -0.2 50.5 47.8 21.4 22.1 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.4 20.3 0.0 54.0 49.7 21.5 22.3 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.9 15.2 18.6 -0.2 50.9 48.2 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 21.5 22.7 19.0 -0.1 51.7 48.8 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.6 17.4 -0.2 44.9 47.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.5 19.7 -0.3 50.3 46.7 21.1 21.5 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.2 17.5 -0.3 47.0 45.8 11.7 12.2 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.5 19.5 0.0 54.8 50.0 21.6 22.4 23.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.8 21.9 18.3 -0.2 50.0 47.7 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 21.2 22.4 18.9 0.0 52.6 49.8 21.5 22.3 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.6 22.1 18.5 -0.2 50.6 47.9 20.8 22.1 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.0 18.3 -0.1 49.7 48.8 21.7 23.0 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.4 19.0 -0.2 47.5 47.4 21.8 22.4 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 21.2 22.6 19.4 0.1 55.2 51.6 21.0 22.4 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.6 18.7 0.0 51.9 50.3 22.1 23.6 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.3 19.4 -0.3 49.8 46.2 21.0 21.4 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.6 20.9 17.4 -0.4 44.4 44.9 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.0 20.1 -0.1 51.6 49.2 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.2 15.3 -0.6 37.6 40.9 17.0 18.1 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.1 22.6 20.0 -0.1 54.0 49.3 21.3 22.4 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.8 19.4 -0.3 48.1 46.0 21.4 21.8 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.2 20.2 0.0 51.7 50.4 21.4 22.1 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.1 19.0 -0.2 48.3 47.8 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 20.8 21.9 18.8 -0.2 49.5 46.7 21.1 21.9 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.1 18.1 -0.3 47.6 46.2 21.2 23.3 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.3 22.1 19.3 -0.2 48.7 46.1 21.2 22.2 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.5 19.1 0.0 52.0 50.3 21.1 22.4 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.4 16.5 -0.5 41.6 43.0 16.2 16.9 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.7 20.1 -0.1 51.9 48.1 21.0 21.7 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------