***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 18.9 0.5 50.0 52.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 21.1 21.0 18.7 0.5 51.8 52.8 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.0 19.1 0.6 54.7 53.5 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.8 17.5 0.6 55.6 53.1 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.4 17.7 0.5 53.9 52.2 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 18.4 20.5 16.3 0.5 54.8 51.3 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 20.6 20.1 18.5 0.4 49.9 52.0 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.0 16.4 0.3 50.0 49.5 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 20.8 20.5 18.1 0.5 52.6 52.3 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.1 20.8 17.0 0.4 49.7 50.4 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.9 17.5 0.6 53.9 52.3 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.3 21.0 17.2 0.4 51.5 50.8 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.7 16.9 0.4 49.2 50.9 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.2 17.9 0.4 51.6 51.4 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.3 17.9 0.8 59.7 55.6 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.6 17.3 0.6 54.2 52.2 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 17.8 19.6 18.2 0.4 50.1 51.8 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.2 20.0 16.4 0.2 47.8 48.9 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 21.1 20.8 18.9 0.6 52.9 53.4 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.5 14.3 0.0 47.2 47.2 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.4 18.7 0.6 53.4 53.1 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 18.7 20.4 18.3 0.4 49.3 52.1 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.7 19.0 0.6 54.2 53.5 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.4 17.8 0.4 51.1 51.2 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 19.9 19.6 17.6 0.5 53.5 52.6 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.3 16.7 0.3 48.4 49.9 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.0 18.1 0.4 50.7 51.8 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 20.5 21.2 17.8 0.7 57.6 54.1 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.6 15.5 0.1 47.1 48.0 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.0 18.9 0.5 52.9 52.9 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------