***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 20.2 0.7 60.1 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.4 22.2 20.1 0.8 60.3 56.6 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 19.9 22.9 20.4 0.9 61.5 57.2 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.6 14.9 18.6 0.4 55.5 53.2 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 20.1 22.7 18.9 0.6 57.1 54.4 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 19.3 21.3 17.4 0.4 56.0 51.8 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.0 19.9 0.7 60.0 56.3 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.7 17.8 0.5 56.2 54.5 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 19.9 22.5 19.4 0.7 57.1 56.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.1 22.6 18.4 0.6 55.9 55.2 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.3 22.6 18.8 0.7 58.6 55.3 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.6 22.1 18.7 0.6 57.5 54.7 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.8 18.3 0.6 56.7 54.1 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.7 19.2 0.8 56.8 56.3 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 18.5 22.7 18.9 0.5 60.0 53.6 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.9 23.3 18.6 0.6 58.6 54.5 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.5 19.7 0.8 60.3 56.5 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.5 21.7 17.8 0.6 54.5 55.0 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.1 22.1 20.3 0.9 60.6 56.9 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.5 18.0 15.8 0.4 53.5 53.8 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.0 22.6 20.0 0.8 60.4 56.2 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.3 22.1 19.7 0.7 58.2 56.0 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.3 22.2 20.4 0.9 60.0 57.2 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.6 22.8 19.2 0.8 57.1 56.3 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.6 22.0 18.8 0.6 59.6 55.3 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.6 22.3 18.2 0.4 53.3 53.0 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 20.0 22.1 19.4 0.7 59.0 55.7 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 19.0 22.6 18.9 0.5 56.9 53.0 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.6 17.3 16.9 0.5 53.0 54.6 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 20.1 22.1 20.3 0.8 60.2 56.5 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------