***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 20.3 -1.0 32.1 40.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 21.1 22.3 20.3 -0.8 38.4 42.8 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 21.0 21.4 20.5 -0.8 34.0 43.4 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 13.8 14.0 18.7 -1.2 28.6 38.8 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 21.1 21.1 18.9 -1.2 30.3 40.4 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 20.2 20.5 17.1 -1.4 28.2 38.2 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.7 20.1 -0.9 37.3 41.8 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 9.5 11.1 17.6 -1.1 32.2 41.2 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 20.9 21.1 19.4 -1.0 33.0 42.3 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 20.0 20.4 18.3 -1.1 33.0 42.0 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 20.9 20.8 18.7 -1.0 31.8 42.1 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 19.9 20.3 18.5 -1.1 32.8 41.7 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.0 20.7 18.0 -1.2 29.5 40.2 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 20.5 22.0 19.3 -0.8 37.3 44.5 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 21.7 22.3 19.2 -0.9 34.2 41.6 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 21.7 21.4 18.4 -1.1 29.6 40.8 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 20.1 21.3 19.9 -0.8 38.3 42.7 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 19.2 20.1 17.6 -1.1 32.7 41.9 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.7 22.0 20.5 -0.7 39.1 43.9 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 15.5 16.2 15.4 -1.3 28.2 39.5 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 20.7 20.9 20.0 -1.0 32.4 41.9 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 20.9 21.5 20.0 -0.8 37.1 43.1 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.7 22.1 20.5 -0.7 40.6 45.3 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 20.4 21.7 19.2 -0.9 34.8 43.8 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 20.9 21.0 18.8 -1.1 30.0 39.8 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 20.8 20.6 17.9 -1.3 28.0 39.4 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 20.6 21.1 19.4 -1.0 31.5 40.2 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 21.3 21.6 19.0 -1.1 30.9 40.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 15.1 14.9 16.7 -1.2 32.3 41.4 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 20.5 21.6 20.4 -0.8 36.4 42.5 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------