***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.1 -0.9 38.2 38.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.6 20.4 -1.2 33.0 35.5 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 21.2 22.8 21.2 -0.7 41.1 40.4 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.0 16.5 19.8 -0.4 49.4 44.6 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 22.0 24.3 20.5 -0.4 47.4 44.3 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.1 18.9 -0.2 50.0 47.3 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.4 20.3 -1.3 34.8 35.2 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 11.7 12.3 18.3 -0.9 38.1 39.0 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 21.5 23.8 21.2 -0.3 47.2 44.1 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 20.8 23.0 19.4 -0.6 42.6 41.2 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 21.6 24.1 20.4 -0.3 47.3 44.9 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 20.8 23.4 19.5 -0.6 42.3 42.7 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.9 24.8 20.1 -0.2 45.8 47.1 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 21.0 21.8 19.5 -1.1 31.8 37.1 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.3 21.6 -0.1 57.1 49.1 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.2 25.1 20.5 -0.1 49.5 48.0 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 20.5 20.7 19.7 -1.4 32.2 32.4 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 19.9 21.5 18.0 -1.1 33.7 36.9 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 20.8 21.6 20.6 -1.1 34.8 37.0 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 17.0 17.6 15.8 -1.5 25.1 32.6 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 21.5 23.3 21.5 -0.6 41.9 41.3 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 20.6 21.0 19.5 -1.6 29.3 31.0 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 20.9 22.1 20.7 -0.9 38.0 39.2 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 21.2 22.5 19.7 -0.9 36.4 38.5 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 21.2 22.7 20.0 -0.9 36.5 38.6 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 22.8 24.2 19.4 -0.4 45.7 44.6 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 21.1 22.5 20.3 -1.0 36.7 37.5 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 22.9 25.2 20.9 -0.1 55.1 48.1 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 15.2 17.4 17.0 -1.3 28.9 34.7 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 20.8 21.9 20.8 -1.1 36.4 37.3 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------