***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 -0.2 42.5 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.2 10.9 -0.2 42.8 45.8 9.0 9.7 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.7 11.1 -0.1 42.6 47.7 11.3 12.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.6 7.2 9.1 -0.3 40.4 43.9 6.7 7.6 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.6 9.2 -0.2 39.1 44.7 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.0 7.6 -0.2 44.6 45.7 7.5 8.3 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.5 10.9 -0.2 42.9 44.9 9.2 10.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.9 7.7 -0.3 38.9 43.7 3.7 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.0 9.8 -0.2 42.7 46.6 9.5 10.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.4 8.3 -0.3 40.4 44.0 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 8.8 -0.2 40.7 45.2 8.7 9.4 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.9 8.4 -0.2 41.7 44.9 7.5 8.4 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.6 8.0 -0.3 40.8 43.3 7.8 9.1 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.9 9.6 -0.2 43.7 46.0 9.6 10.0 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.2 9.9 -0.1 49.5 48.9 9.8 10.2 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.8 8.5 -0.2 44.5 45.6 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.5 10.5 -0.2 44.2 45.4 9.1 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.4 7.6 -0.3 40.1 42.5 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.3 10.9 -0.1 43.4 47.2 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 4.4 6.1 -0.4 36.4 40.5 4.3 4.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.5 10.7 -0.2 43.8 46.4 9.0 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.6 10.5 -0.2 44.4 45.2 8.3 8.8 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.2 10.8 0.0 44.8 48.6 8.6 9.3 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.3 9.4 -0.2 43.1 46.0 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.6 9.9 -0.2 40.9 44.5 9.3 10.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.6 8.2 -0.3 40.1 43.0 8.4 9.0 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.7 10.5 -0.2 41.3 45.0 9.3 9.9 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.4 9.5 -0.2 46.7 46.5 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.5 7.0 -0.3 40.3 43.3 7.2 7.7 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.8 11.1 -0.2 42.2 46.0 9.3 10.1 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------