***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.3 -0.7 39.7 41.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.6 11.1 -0.7 41.3 42.2 9.2 10.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.5 11.2 -0.6 41.5 42.2 11.3 13.2 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.9 6.6 9.2 -0.7 33.1 39.1 6.6 8.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.8 9.2 -0.7 33.5 39.6 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.1 7.6 -0.6 36.5 41.9 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.3 11.0 -0.8 40.6 41.4 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.3 7.7 -0.8 37.1 39.2 4.3 4.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 9.1 9.4 9.7 -0.7 34.7 39.9 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.1 9.4 8.2 -0.8 35.6 38.6 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 8.5 8.9 8.9 -0.6 35.7 41.0 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.4 8.5 -0.7 38.5 40.6 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.0 -0.7 33.2 40.3 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.3 9.7 -0.7 40.3 40.7 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.4 9.9 -0.5 40.3 42.8 9.9 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.4 8.6 -0.6 36.9 41.3 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.0 10.8 -0.7 41.0 42.6 9.6 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.1 7.5 -0.9 34.9 37.0 8.0 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.4 11.1 -0.6 43.0 43.0 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.4 6.1 -1.0 31.5 35.9 4.5 5.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 8.9 9.5 10.6 -0.7 37.2 40.7 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.5 10.8 -0.7 41.2 41.6 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.0 11.0 -0.5 45.1 43.4 9.1 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.4 9.4 -0.7 38.5 40.4 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.9 -0.7 39.3 41.1 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.2 -0.8 31.8 37.9 8.6 10.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.8 10.6 -0.7 40.5 41.5 9.6 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.7 9.5 -0.6 37.6 40.7 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.1 7.6 7.0 -0.9 36.2 36.7 7.2 8.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.2 11.2 -0.7 41.4 41.9 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------