***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 -0.5 47.4 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.4 11.7 -0.6 44.5 42.8 9.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.1 12.3 -0.3 48.8 46.0 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.3 10.5 -0.4 46.0 44.9 8.0 8.5 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.5 10.9 -0.3 50.0 46.5 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.0 9.2 -0.1 47.4 49.0 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.8 11.9 -0.6 43.4 42.5 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.2 9.0 -0.3 46.4 46.1 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.4 11.4 -0.1 54.1 49.3 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 9.8 -0.3 49.1 46.7 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.4 10.3 -0.4 46.6 44.5 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.2 9.8 -0.3 48.2 46.8 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.8 9.7 -0.3 47.2 45.8 9.3 9.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.3 10.8 -0.5 44.5 43.7 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.5 12.0 -0.3 48.5 47.8 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.6 10.3 -0.3 48.5 46.8 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.0 11.3 -0.6 41.3 41.6 10.5 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 10.1 8.7 -0.4 47.3 44.1 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.8 -0.5 45.4 43.7 10.1 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.1 6.9 -0.4 43.9 44.4 5.2 6.4 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.9 12.3 -0.3 51.7 47.3 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.8 11.4 -0.7 39.8 40.0 9.3 10.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.6 11.9 -0.4 48.8 45.4 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.7 10.6 -0.4 48.0 44.4 10.1 10.7 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 11.4 -0.6 44.2 43.2 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.4 9.7 -0.2 50.0 48.0 9.0 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.8 11.7 -0.6 45.3 43.9 10.3 11.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.5 11.3 -0.2 48.5 47.4 9.0 9.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.9 8.1 -0.3 47.7 45.2 7.9 9.0 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.0 12.1 -0.5 45.6 43.5 10.5 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------